the Question of what will postpandemic the world is now raised by many. Uncertainty is lacking, but the authors of the report believe that we can confidently talk about the decline of the era of liberal world order, in which a small group of countries claimed to be “correct” set of values and impose them on others. The crisis has demonstrated that stress tolerance and efficiency of the government and society do not depend on such a favorite in the West division of autocracy and democracy, but rather are determined by the culture and traditions of each country. “One of the main categories coming period will be the ethical pluralism – the lack of “proper” value set, to be followed by all” – experts underline.
At the presentation of the report in the spirit of the time held a video conference, Russian Deputy foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov suggested that in such circumstances, the “competing values will increase”. But Russia has something to offer the world: it was her “identity, the Russian way, commitment to the protection of its own sovereignty, our social unity”.
But many international institutions, alas, has not justified hopes and expectations. First of all, talking about the most developed integration blocs such as the EU and NATO. “In shock conditions, the issue was solidarity in the European Union. NATO have not shown themselves in any way, although the experience of China has demonstrated what useful role can the military play,” say the authors of the report. In the best case, the partnership was able to establish individual countries on a bilateral basis. Humanitarian issues almost “disappeared from the agenda” on the international markets.
the Prominent American political scientist Thomas Graham, a former aide to Russia of US President George W. Bush, said that in a pandemic no one showed himself a true leader, and the term “international community” looks like a myth. “The summit “group of twenty” was a lot of rhetoric but little concrete action. The UN called for cease fire around the world, nobody wanted to hear these appeals. Who did everything possible, but now involved in a dispute between the US, China and other countries.” He believes that the world is “not enough genuine leaders who would help us to avoid disasters,” such as those that were in the XX century.
Experts in one voice say about strengthening the role of the state, confirmed that it is only in times of crisis “is able to operate smoothly and efficiently”, to provide its citizens security and prosperity. Meanwhile, as warned Graham, during the crisis, “the growing authority of the government, her desire to control society and the economy, and it is unlikely that the state can easily refuse it after the pandemic.” Fyodor Lukyanov in this context, mentioned the remark of a friend from Canada, who Shokir��shaft the willingness of the usually freedom-loving compatriots to sacrifice freedoms for safety and health.
Another refrain of his speech was the idea that in a “shedding” of the international structures the most dangerous and the most likely development is the increased competition between China and the United States to the level of the bipolar confrontation. This means that a new “cold war” many will have to make a choice between the two opposing camps.
the pessimism of the authors is not shared by all participants of the presentation. According to Sergei Ryabkov, “there is no confidence, that is so hard to stick out the situation with the confrontation between China and the USA.” The Russian foreign Ministry see the future not bipolar, but polycentric: “Despite the temptation of easy recipes on the principle of each for himself, humanity can hardly afford to act just so. A banality was the fact that today’s threats cannot be solved alone and COVID-19 confirms this conclusion. To fight with him and with other global challenges, it is necessary only on the basis of multilateral cooperation”. According to the diplomat, Russia is open to cooperation with all who are ready for this, knowing that “the modern world with all its complexities and challenges actually requires cooperation.”
an Alternative and more viable option, which is called the authors of the report, is the transformation of the UN security Council in a kind of “world government” on issues of war and peace. Ryabkov agreed with this statement, Recalling the proposal of Russia to hold a summit of the five permanent members of the security Council. “For the world would be a considerable boon, if the leaders of the “five” has perepodchinenie a commitment to universally recognized norms of international law and monocentricity the world order that outlined the joint measures to combat pandemics, the settlement of regional crises and conflicts, reduction of global military danger,” – said the Deputy Minister.
At the same time, the diplomat admitted that while the pandemic is “exacerbated ideological and information opposition”. As an example, he cited the attempts of the West to denigrate accusing Russia and China of medical assistance, calling the attack “another manifestation of Russophobia and sinophobia. Another method of information warfare was the attempts of several countries to find the “guilty”, to use the theme of coronavirus to settle accounts with geopolitical competitors in circumvention of international law.
this, in particular, about the growing list of claims of the United States to China, which is imposed on other countries. Ryabkov stressed that there was “no reason to blame China in that something was taken untimely, wrong, poorly during the whole period of the struggle with the virus.”
But, warned by the program Director of the “Valdai” Timothy Berdache��, one of the authors of the report, a significant threat to the effectiveness of the UN is precisely the confrontation between the US and China – two countries that “have the potential for revolutionary changes in the world”, but with mutually exclusive character. In his opinion, if a new bipolarity to be, it will be much less delicate, orderly and obeying certain rules, what is the “cold war” between the USSR and the USA. The fact that the latter interacted on a relatively narrow range of issues, “which managed to control a “hot line”. China and the United States are much more interconnected and interdependent, and the economic crisis will be acutely compete for resources. This situation is more reminiscent experts the eve of the First world war, with its imperialist competition.
the escalating competition between China and the US in the “hot” phase while saving the deterrence potential of nuclear weapons, but it, as experts point out “Valdai”, is not limitless. Especially in the context of the degradation of international mechanisms for arms control.
meanwhile, as recalled Sergei Ryabkov, Moscow has not received from Washington any signals about the intention to extend one of the key documents in this area – the Agreement on measures for the further reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms (start Treaty), whose term expires in February 2020. The administration of Donald trump is clearly not in a hurry, but, according to Thomas Graham, if the November US presidential election to win the Democrat Joseph Biden, he supported the renewal of the contract, after the document was signed in his tenure as Vice President.
the Pandemic has become a massive and unprecedented economic shock. As the report indicates, we are “not about the chain of consequences, as it was known during the crisis and the almost shutdown of the entire system”, its formatting. Sergey Ryabkov stated that the coronavirus led to a deep decline in business activity, whose consequences can only be evaluated in the future. “He’s been hit hard with demand, global production chains, and in General this “great quarantine” will surely strike the world economy, although its impact on specific countries and groupings will probably be different,” – said the diplomat.
the State take measures to support only at the national level, based on their interests. Sadly, although common to all challenge US not only turned sanctions, but also announce a new. The authors of the report do not rule out that “as the inevitable worsening of the economic downturn, the situation will only worsen”. And because they believe that the economic crisis has shown the need to create new global mechanisms for coordinated action to support the system of world economy. For examplemeasures, the interaction between the regional integration structures, coordinated by the “group of twenty”. Experts of the Valdai club believe that the main lesson of the crisis should be “creating a more balanced and inclusive world economic system” on this basis.
