“long before the pandemic coronavirus we stated that the world is undergoing profound global changes. The modern model of a market economy showing some signs of its exhaustion, requires a profound transformation and complete change of the paradigm of development”, – said the President of the Free economic society, co-chair MAAP of Russia Sergey Bodrunov. He drew attention to the fact that in the last 10 years all over the world observed the strongest in the history of the polarization of income within countries between rich and poor, and between countries.
the growth of economies, advances in scientific and technological development not in proportion transformirovalsya in improving the quality of people’s lives. It is no coincidence that in recent years, economists are looking for an indicator that would replace the familiar GDP and would more accurately reflect the level of economic development, but also meet the real needs of the people. “More equal access to education, more equitable distribution of income, decent level of social protection – such performance rather than simple growth in the gross domestic product of more reflect the maturity of the society”, – said Sergey Bodrunov.
According to scientists, in the near future drivers of the economy will be the pharmaceutical and medical industry and biotechnology industry. The President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, co-chair MAEV Alexander Sergeyev cited the example of China, which is now actively disseminating their scientific and technological solutions around the world. For example, exports test-system for detection of coronavirus in more than 80 countries. “Now all eyes turned to science, and it is the moment of truth – how her organization will enable you to meet the challenges of the pandemic. Response is possible when there is a backlog. It will be seen in 6-8 months – how our test system will be competitive, as the development of the vaccine. Groundwork is the fundamental science, we need to increase its role in the country,” says Sergeyev.
agreed and economists. Thus, the Deputy Chairman (chief economist) of Vnesheconombank Andrei Klepach noted that medicine, Microbiology and pharmaceuticals are now growing, but their development needs to seriously change. Health systems in many countries proved to be significantly vulnerable, the economist said, so you need to change not only funding but also the quality of health care. It is, in particular, the creation of new methods and technologies based not only on antibiotics but also on bacteriophages and on the complex of microbiological tests.
“In my opinion, in basic research final priorities will be biology, medicine, genetic engineering, Virology, says President of IMEMO them. Yevgeny Primakov ran Alexander Dynkin. Innovations will complete its transition to so-called non-linear innovation models. This is evident in the efforts to develop antiviral vaccines.”
the Pandemic has pushed the development of digital technologies. According to Alexander Dynkin, there is now a breakthrough is made, which at another time would have occurred no earlier than the late 20-ies. Services online communication, production and sales of digital content, working across digital platforms contract got great acceleration. Amid falling market value carriers, oil and automotive companies, the capitalization of digital giants Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Google demonstrates high stability.
to Accelerate the development of it increases and the demand for remote work. To them, according to Alexander Dynkin, was better adapted to highly skilled workers in such fields as education, corporate management, professional business services. “In the U.S. approximately 29 percent of the workforce can work remotely. Preliminary estimates show that remote work one-third more efficient and two times cheaper for the employer. Obviously, this trend will accelerate, but at the same time will bring and the polarization of income,” – said the expert.
on the Eve of the crisis were in the processes associated with the development of a green economy and address climate change, reminded the Director of Institute of economic forecasting of RAS Boris Porfiriev. The pandemic has brought about certain improvements in the environmental situation: due to the suspension of production decreased harmful emissions an average 5 percent, but in individual countries and more (for example, in China by 30 percent). But this situation is temporary, warned the expert: economic recovery, these figures will change in the opposite direction. In addition, the decrease in oil prices made it more attractive than alternative energy sources.
“Pandemic crisis a radical revolution in “green economy” does not do, – said Boris Porfiriev. – He plays the role of catalyst structural and technological transformations that began before him. We are talking about the modernization of the economic structure in favor of increasing the share of services, including educational and medical. It is necessary to continue changes in the knowledge economy – here the kernel will shift towards health, including in the direction of medical science and medical instrument-making”.
About the need for support of knowledge economy said the academician Abel Aganbegyan. In his opinion, if the investment in fixed capital in the knowledge economy will grow by 10-15 percent per year, by 2023, Russia’s GDP could grow by 3 percent, and by 2025 – 5. “In the current crisis has the potential to out of it to growth, not stagnation. In particular, at the expense of industrial enterprises and construction which in may has resumed. People don’t go on vacation, to recover lost revenues. It will give a powerful impetus to growth,” he added.
this year, as predicted by Abel Aganbegyan, the crisis will be deep enough. GDP will shrink by 8 percent, real disposable incomes of population by 8-10 per cent. The budget will be reduced in half and the number of poor will rise from 18 million to 30 or even more. 1.5 times reduced the number of small and medium enterprises. The expert recalled that the crisis of 2008-2009, Russia has overcome fast enough, including due to the fact that anti-crisis measures was spent 10.9 percent of GDP (now down to 4 percent).
“Yes, the level of anti-crisis spending less than in 2008-2009, but he has his own specific contribution to the maintenance of the economy and incomes will, – says Andrey Klepach. – According to our estimates, the decline in GDP this year will decrease by 0.6 percent, the anti-crisis measures will support about one percent in real income. The costs of coronavirus and the fall in oil prices is large, but the system of support measures work. There are many risks associated with how we will emerge from the crisis. Many of the measures will come to fruition during this year. It will give a setback the following year from the point of view of income, consumption. In the budgetary rules we have to cut budget spending compared with that laid down in the law on the budget for 2021. To have a real recovery plan and transition to a new quality of growth, it is necessary to depart from the fiscal rules or to modify it.”
the Second Moscow academic economic forum will continue the correspondence session, which will take place on 15 – may 31, 2020 in a panel discussion format.
