the World returned to work. This is only the first baby steps, and still going strong, the fear of new surge in the number infected. Oil and world stock indexes significantly retreated from the extreme lows of previous months. Moreover, volatility in most markets has declined markedly. Now it’s time to look around in an attempt to determine where next to move the world. In our view, the uncertainty of the answer to this question is the main factor of calm.
Investors in the Russian market, as their global colleagues, not in a hurry to make a choice. The Russian ruble is almost out of the range 73,5-74,5 per dollar last days. The decline under the mark of 72.5 would be an important signal of investor confidence in the prospects of the ruble. This is possible when the markets finally drop the fear of the economic consequences of a pandemic (an increase in defaults, a drop in the standard of living, etc.).
the Euro weaker. He is already beating about the levels below 79,5 is the area of the lows from the beginning of March. But his weakness explain Europe’s problems. She had to endure the hardest hit by the pandemic coronavirus. But these problems were burdened by disagreements among politicians in the region about what steps to take next. Germany stood in open confrontation with the actions of the ECB. This is a very dangerous precedent, as it is not trivial may be the issue of stay of Germany in the Euro area. This 180-degree turn from the situation 8-9 years ago, when the threat of withdrawal hanging over the weak.
the Looming economic difficulties and potential problems of the Eurozone make cautious view on the prospects of the ruble. Although it is not necessary to expect repetition of the collapse of the ruble, which we saw in February and March to bet on further consolidation should be very wary. For further growth we need a really good news, proving a vigorous economic recovery as Russia, Europe. So far, only we can say that the economy has ceased to deteriorate – no more.
