the longer the pandemic coronavirus and mode of isolation, the more complex and contradictory situation in the Russian labour market. On the one hand, there is the President’s appeal to employers not to reduce wages to employees and avoid mass lay-offs. On the other, both of negative going, as illustrated by opinion polls. On the one hand, the authorities warn that the peak of the pandemic has not yet passed. On the other, you begin to untie some of the subjects of economic activities. On the one hand, official statistics show that the unemployment situation in the normal range. On the other, is preparing for a massive invasion of the unemployed for benefits. What can explain these and other paradoxes, how they can be resolved on the background of the pandemic and what changes in labor relations should we prepare for — this “MK” talked to a leading expert of the Russian labor market, Director of the Centre for labour market studies Higher school of Economics Vladimir Gimpel’son.
is it Possible to at least roughly assess the potential scale of damage that a pandemic coronavirus will cause the Russian labor market?
— the Only thing we can say for sure — the damage will be significant. The details can still only guess. Statistics on unemployment will not be long, as the Rosstat surveys involve direct contact interviewers with households that today are completely eliminated. We also do not know how in reality, government support reaches those who need it, and what difference does it make in their lives. While we can only speculate about the kinds of activities which businesses and professions are most at risk. It is primarily a very large part of the services sector, which involves direct interaction with customers: foodservice, a large share of trade, fitness, culture, tourism, repair of all kinds, Barber shops. While these segments are unable to function on epidemiological considerations. What awaits them, who is going to survive and who is not? We must help them in any case, even blindly, otherwise we will lose a vast array of the economy, without which it would be impossible to recover quickly. And help business, because it help people to have a normal income and work.
So in fact the government helps. In your opinion, enough?
In my opinion, is not enough — and by volume and speed. Offering their anti-crisis measures, the government largely refers to the past experience. However, the experience of previous crises, which took place in Russia, can be useful only in part. Then the support was concentrated in large enterprises. Now another structure of employment and other��th nature of the crisis. Previously, it was the segment of micro business, including the self-employed — formal and informal, played the role of the absorber, sponge, saving the country from mass unemployment. The staff of large and medium-sized enterprises, losing a job, slowly relocated in this segment, which was focused on providing services to the population and not so heavily regulated. In the end, employment has generally remained high and unemployment low. And now the impact was primarily in the service sector. And hit a double — and the supply side (businesses stopped because of quarantine measures), and from the point of view of demand (people with falling incomes do not seek services).
— as planned By the authorities, after the may holidays will start a gradual exit of economy from quarantine. In Moscow it is planned to run factories and construction sites. And from the point of view of the labour market of workers when industries have to return to work in the first place?
— to Enter the quarantine much easier than to get out of it. In many European countries the process is already underway. However, no universal and clear-technology does not exist. The key question is how to avoid a new surge of the epidemic. However, to sit in isolation can not be infinite, because this process has its economic and psychological costs. Think, large enterprises did not stop the majority continued to operate. The main criterion is that first and foremost, needs to recycle those areas where it is possible to follow the epidemiological limitations and at the same time to save the workflow. But the problem is that a significant part of services involves minimal social distancing. You can order takeaway food, with no one contacting, but not all, of what is needed for a normal life, you can get delivered to your house. In different regions and cities, technology release from quarantine may vary, taking into account the local economic structure, the situation of quarantine and discipline of the population. For example, in Europe, open only to those restaurants that allow you to provide safe distancing. And cinemas, theatres, concert halls and all that is associated with mass entertainment in the last turn.
— Experts suggest that many employers do not want to return employees to the offices, preferring udalenku. There are even estimates that the number of “all remote workers” will grow by at least 10%. What is your opinion on this subject?
— we Have no reliable data to do a quantitative assessment. Always some of the employees worked remotely, and the Supplement thereto of 10% does not change anything. We have all become participants in a Grand experiment: can jobs to move in apartments, to give a meanheating part of employment remote format. My rating: pure technologically about 15% of jobs can be translated into udalenku. But apart from technological limitations, there are many other, particularly economic and socio-psychological. Not all perform at home work will be cost effective: the employer is not able to monitor employees in “house Slippers” will be her focus. Accordingly, for the employer the benefits of remote mode is reduced. He has three options — either to eliminate such workplace is permanently or move them back to the office to either reduce labor costs. For the latter, you can always find a justification: you’re sitting at home, you don’t go on public transport, not go to lunch in the dining room, you don’t need a new suit.
in addition, this work begins to interfere with family and personal life, turning tremendous discomfort. The working day becomes denormalized, infinite, often breaking out domestic conflicts. It is one thing when a person lives in a private country house or a large apartment, with one room dedicated to office and it is possible to lock to little children ran shouting, “daddy, let’s play!”. We have the majority of people living in different conditions in small urban apartments. In this case it becomes doubly awkward. Because it’s not the same labor happiness, about which people dream, they will avoid such a turn. Accordingly, the figures for growth udalenka can be small.
— Epidemiological threat may persist for a long time — two-three-four months and more. It’s not to quickly return people to their offices?
But many workers sitting in separate rooms, posing an epidemiological threat. Another thing — open space (open space). But even there you can organize the working process so that, for example, on even days came some people, on odd days the other. Between them was a safe distance. The special issue is the so-called “office plankton” — various corporate clerks, performing purely paper work. As a rule, personnel officers, accountants, lawyers, various kinds of workers of average skill. Companies need them not because we cannot do without them. Just all of our regulation is so complicated and creates big risks for management that need a bunch of people who are supposed to ensure that each piece of paper was decorated accordingly. We have a zillion little decisions, regulations — Federal, sectoral, regional. To get rid of these workers, a radical change in the regulation, and that means changebe state. And while all of them should have the chief hand, and “udalenka” they are not sent.
— it is believed that the list of occupations for which there is an increased demand after the pandemic, to be couriers, I. T., maintenance. At the same time, the services of security guards and tour operators, the population will need less. What is your “most popular” and “most useless” majors post-crisis?
— I do Not think that after the pandemic, the labor market will change dramatically. Of course, you will need more couriers, if it is to develop remote delivery. With pros it’s not so simple: if a company closes because of the crisis, and it specialists, located in their state, too, will lose their jobs. For example, if dramatically shrinks the tourist business, the aggregators, hotels and airlines will also be reduced. And this is purely an urban company. In General, any process in the labor market are characterized by extreme inertia and evolving. If, for example, yesterday there were 500 thousand representatives of some profession, tomorrow they may not be 200 thousand or a million. For such changes takes time.
even speculate on the demand for specialty very difficult. What do you mean, the most demanded profession? One criterion — its share in total employment: if a lot of people, so there is a demand. Then on the first cast be the sellers in the store and car drivers. We have before the pandemic in these two occupations accounted for about 14% of all employees. I call them “professions open enrollment”. Lost my job and then got a job as a taxi driver, if you have a driver’s license. Or the cashier at the nearest online store. Not very prestigious, but there is something to feed themselves and their children. Another approach is a highly paid profession. Then it’s the banks and the oil and gas sector, but very much not required. Another approach is a unique profession like an astronaut. It is unlikely that the demand for these professions will be affected by the pandemic.
— What do you predict the dynamics in terms of the level and structure of unemployment? Do you share expert opinion that the country will increase the number of officially registered unemployed, which are now about 900 thousand?
Unemployment is usually measured using two measures: General unemployment and registered. Picture of General unemployment give a special examination conducted worldwide by national statistical services on comparable methodology and large samples. It is based on ILO recommendations. For example, a person says: I have no job, looking for it and ready for it to start. If these three conditions are met, then the individual is considered unemployed. Registered unemployment is associated with an appeal to the employment service. The individual must apply and prove your unemployed status and the service it will register and assign a benefit. In most States, these two types — General and register — quantitatively close. In Russia, between them a huge gap. The overall unemployment rate on the eve of the pandemic was running at 4.5% (3.5 million people), and official unemployment was less than 1% (about 700 thousand). These indicators are determined by the state of the economy, structure of the population and, finally, the amount of the benefits. What benefits more, the higher the level of registered unemployment in the country. In Spain, Italy, France, the allowance in the region of 1 thousand euros: for many it’s an incentive to get it and slowly look for a job. In these countries, the benefits can be viewed as a kind of payment for a “job job”.
In Russia, the maximum allowance remains ridiculously low even after increasing to the level of the minimum wage (12 130 rubles). This is about a quarter of the average salary in the country. But its not easy to get: you need to collect a pile of documents, but in the end you can assign any couple of thousand. This undermines the incentives to go to the employment service. Therefore, many unemployed are not registered and are intentionally left without benefits, not included in the statistics of the unemployed. So I will refrain from forecasts. Moreover, the situation is very specific: the business is closed, the demand for labor is depressed, and this greatly limits the chances of success in job search.
— what will happen to grey sector? Looks like he will lose badly in the amount and number of employees.
— Here is an interesting story: nobody can precisely define it, but because all the ratings gray (shadow and informal) sector is very rough. In any case, a significant part is tied to the provision of services. When you need to make repairs, you often the name of the person from the grey or polosatoi area that you will paint the walls, Wallpaper pokleit, install new plumbing. When you want a babysitter for your small children or a caregiver for elderly parents — find there. This sector took a heavy blow of the crisis. Due to epidemiological risk now you will never let anybody to his home, but no one did not go. On the other hand, to make it all functioned, we need a effective demand from the population. But household income has declined. As a result, very many people engaged in the gray economy, will remain without work and money. Accurate estimates do not exist, but we can talk about many millions. It is obvious that they need to do something to help: they are not villains, and our fellow citizens, they have families, little children. Otherwise, we will get a huge increase in poverty. Even if they have underpaid income tax, but pay other taxes — excise duties and value added tax (if trips to the store), the tax to property, to payWali utility services. This is not some aliens who did not participate in the formation of budget revenues.
— What advice would you give a conditional average Russian who remained in the crisis without a job: register with the employment service, to wait out the hard times, to place a summary in the Internet?
— everyone has their own situation, and the General Council, probably not. But worst of all is to relax and to do nothing, believing that all by itself ever formed. If you believe in your skills, then look for the area where you will be able to implement them. It is necessary to start. Generally always need some measure of flexibility and adaptability — you may have to sacrifice something. We must be prepared for what will have to acquire new skills or to learn new skills. If the family has savings or alternative sources of income, it is sometimes easier to wait out the storm, to devote that time to self-education, improvement of professional skill. And then with fresh forces to storm the labor market.
