More than four million people worldwide became infected with the coronavirus. More than 280 thousand died. These are official statistics, which in most countries make only those who died with a confirmed diagnosis Covid-19. Can we assume that we know the exact number of victims of the virus? And can we rely on official statistics?
In late January, 60-year-old man of Chinese origin fell in the street near the restaurant in Sydney’s Chinatown, his heart stopped. Reports from Australian journalists, passers-by refused to do it cardiopulmonary resuscitation for fear of Contracting coronavirus. When paramedics arrived on the scene, the man had died of a heart attack.
the doctors had no reason to suspect that the man could be the coronavirus, and he was not included in the official statistics of victims of the pandemic. At that time Australia were only nine confirmed cases Covid-19.
Every day people are watching the growing figures of morbidity. One day, April 16, in the United States from the coronavirus died 4928 patients. In Britain, one day on April 21 with a diagnosis of Covid-19 died 1,172. Russia currently reported 2116 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, but every day in the country ill about ten thousand people.
Even if you believe the official statistics on Covid-19, it possible to conclude that we know the exact number of victims of coronavirus? There is a version according to which the real figures around the world can be 60% higher. And experts doubt that it is now even possible to establish the exact number of victims.
the question of statistics in almost all countries and international organizations have to rely on the authorities in the hope that the published numbers reflect the reality. However, there are cases when the authorities, either through error or deliberately published incorrect statistics.
John mutter cites the example of the earthquake in Haiti in 2010. In the first year after the disaster, the authorities, estimating the number of victims, and called numbers from 217 thousand to 316 thousand people. Even then, the experts pointed out that such round numbers — a clear indication that the calculations can only be approximate. Accurate statistics nobody knows so far. When estimating the number of victims often refer to a study by the University of Michigan, which concluded that in 2010 in Haiti has killed an estimated 160 thousand people.
“the Numbers were initially too high, so people have experienced the compassion and donated money,” says mutter.
According to the expert, authoritarian country (and the mutter now include the U.S. presidency, Donald trump) are usually trying to downplay the scale of the problem: “If the figures are high — so the state does not control the situation. And authorary governments seek to control. Unfortunately, in many countries, including in Russia, there are no independent agencies whose job is to consider death. So you have to rely on power.”
the easiest way to know the number of victims of the pandemic seems to count those who died with a confirmed diagnosis. But whether this final figure? John mutter is sure that there is: first, not all people are tested, secondly, tests can give false negative results, and finally third, people are dying not only from Covid-19, but due the epidemic of coronavirus.
for Example, right now experts are talking about increased number of suicides and suggest that this could contribute to isolation, which exacerbates anxiety and depression and has a serious impact on the mental condition. Can we say that the coronavirus has indirectly caused the death of at least part of these people?
in addition, it has not disappeared heart attacks and strokes — in some countries, where hospitals are crowded with patients with coronavirus, doctors have to literally choose who to save. And some patients themselves long to seek help, for fear of infection, and die at home. How to consider all these deaths?
“I think in almost all countries now the numbers are too low, including the United States, says mutter. — But the most dangerous — especially to understate the numbers, because then people start to feel too confident.”
the End of March 2020. The emergency Department of one of the largest hospitals of Madrid. Doctor Daniel Bernabo signs the certificate of death of his elderly patient and then turns to help another — a patient choking.
Then the intensive care unit was full, sometimes people have died right in the waiting room without receiving care, described Bloomberg. Bernabo was told that the new hospital rules, introduced due pandemic, require doctors to take at first, young patients as they have more chances to survive. “In any other situation this elderly man would have the best chance of survival, said Bernabo about the lost patient. But so many patients and they all die at once.”
a Similar situation was observed in the most affected areas of Italy, where doctors sometimes had to make hard choices and setting priorities — not in favor of older people.
the British newspaper Financial Times has conducted a detailed analysis of data from 14 countries, comparing mortality rates for March and April 2020, with an average mortality rate over the same period 2015-2019.
the Newspaper found that during the pandemic in England and Wales the General death rate from all causes, including coronavirus — was above average for the lastincrease of 37%, Spain — 51%, in Belgium — 60%.
the Average increase in the number of deaths in 13 countries under review was 49%. This means that in these countries during the pandemic died on average one and a half times more people than in zocoronline years.
of Course, we are not talking about the fact that this increase occurred only due to the number of deaths with a diagnosis of Covid-19. And this, says Professor John mutter, is hidden one of the main dangers of a pandemic: doctors are losing patients which at any other time would have a chance to survive.
a Russian journalist Pavel Kanygin, who is now in USA, said that in the second week of quarantine, went to the hospital with acute abdominal pain. The doctors diagnosed him with acute appendicitis.
the Journalist was advised to take antibiotics. After almost a month and a half Kanygin says he feels fine, but has to constantly be in touch with the doctors. He expects the Appendix he still will be removed when the situation is normalized.
Irish activist Vicki Phelan, supporting women with uterine cancer and she is living with this disease, admitted that if she was in the hospital with coronavirus, and before the doctors got to the choice of whom to save, she would have been asked to save another person:
Robin Francis — British cardiologist, he sees patients with heart attacks in one of the London hospitals. He tells Bi-bi-si, in practice, doctors did not have to make a choice — which of two patients to save.
But one case Francis remembers it very well. The ambulance was coming to the challenge due heart failure. Under normal conditions, the doctors immediately started cardiopulmonary resuscitation, but this time this did not happen. “It is fair to say that patients received less effective care than would. If doctors suspect that a patient may be a coronavirus, they are required to wear protective gear before starting CPR. So at the crucial moment there is a delay. But it is impossible to say, would have died of this patient, even if the delay was not” — says Francis.
In Russia have been widely discussed situation with patient Elena Calloway. Channel REN-TV has published a video which shows how a 48-year-old woman removed from social taxi and put on a bench near her house, where I leave. The woman, not waiting for help, died.
“She was admitted with suspected pneumonia, therefore, come to us, — has told in interview “edition of” Alexander Vanyukov, a surgeon working in Moscow 51st hospital redeveloped for coronavirus. Pneumonia was not confirmed. Continue to keep her in the infectious diseases hospital is putting her life prettyconsiderable danger, especially she had a lot of comorbidities, and pneumonia is the last thing she needed”.
According to Vanyukov, within a half hour the patient was trying to transfer to another hospital, not redeveloped for Covid-19, but doctors 51st hospital failed. Vanyukov tells that the woman herself asked to go home.
“She has become a hostage of the situation: she’s not pneumonia, and translate it will not be found. Most likely, other hospitals did not have seats. Plus they don’t willingly take people from foster infectious disease hospitals,” — says Vanyukov.
While doctors in many countries have noticed an unusual silence in the casualty departments of hospitals. In Britain, for example, before there came on their own patients with injuries or in need of emergency assistance. Usually these offices regardless of the time of day — was filled with people who often had less life-threatening cases to wait for the doctor for hours.
Now, it seems that the increasing number of hospitalizations with pneumonia is balanced by the absence of patients in the emergency Department. Empty the emergency Department could be explained by the fact that isolated people are less traumatized, and social distancing, and frequent hand-washing lead to the fact that people get sick less. But how to explain the sharp reduction in the number of emergency hospital admissions for cardiac and cancer?
“Especially the sharp reduction in the number of patients observed in the Department of cardiology. Unfortunately, a slight pain in the chest is easy to convince ourselves that the reasons for concern. Alas, many of my patients these days have asked for help too late, already moving heart attack at home. Instead of having to call an ambulance, they waited, hoping that everything will go because you were too scared to go to the hospital. And we don’t know how many people could just die at home, but they are beginning to understand that a lot of them,” says cardiologist Robin Francis.
Probably, patients with serious illnesses to stay home from the fear to be infected by the coronavirus in a hospital or from a desire not to burden doctors, says the former Director of the NHS — the British health system — Chris Bourne: “it is too early to say whether the subjected people to the risk of death, but in many cases delay in treatment can lead to tragic results, both now and in the future.”
Italy has faced a similar problem, said bi-Bi-si Aldo Magione, Director of the Italian research centre Association (Association of Hospital Cardiologists Research Center). “Patients just do not go to the emergency room or wait to appeal to the doctor because they are afraid of Contracting karanvirmustache. I have every reason to assume an increase in mortality from myocardial infarction in the near future.”
Doctors in Britain and other countries have begun to urge patients not to delay requests to the hospital and remember: the emergency Department are open not only for patients with coronavirus.
