More active cooperation and data exchange with the developers of epidemiological models could benefit Russia and increase the accuracy of forecasts of the epidemic of the coronavirus, said in an interview with RIA Novosti doctor of Biophysics, an expert on issues of immunity, a graduate of Cambridge and California universities Peppers Partensky.
"it is Important not only to think about what one or the other model you said, but also about how you can improve it and create more precise base for the regional strategy. The best option for the Russian Ministry of health would organize a working group, which interacted with the most prominent developers of models, supplying them with information and discuss the planned action against the epidemic at the regional level. Russia is the largest country in the world, so that, in contrast to the small but densely-populated Singapore, where the focus should be on decentralized regional strategy with effective tools for monitoring and tracking of inter-regional spread of the virus," said Partensky.
"This approach will improve the results of each of the developers of models and increased interaction will allow Russia to benefit from the meta-analysis of forecasts based on different models", – says the scientist.
To create a basis for effective modeling, according to Partensky, most importantly, what is needed is the extension of testing to a level that allows you to set not only the number of infected, but a more accurate number uninfected.
"based On the number of tests identified number of positive and negative diagnoses, the model concludes that the ratio of infected and uninfected in the population as a whole. When you start testing, you get a large number of infected. Usually, this means that you need to test more. And when you test and receive only 10% of positive results, or less than 1% (as in Singapore), then you can be much more confident in the reliability of the forecast, which gives your model", – said the Agency interlocutor.
"it is Also important to use two types of tests: to detect active infection and for a wide serological analysis, which reveals those who have been infected in the past and have recovered. This allows to improve the quality of estimates of the number recovered in the respective models. And the identification of infected and recovered will help us to assess how much remains subject to disease," explained Partensky.
Among the important to improve the quality of forecasting measures, in his opinion, is the strengthening of this direction of work, as a search for contacts of patients with diagnosed COVID-19. How effectively a particular ��region can establish the process of identifying contacts depends not only forecast accuracy, but also the efficiency and speed of the epidemic, said the expert.
When implementing any measures, the regional authorities should take into account local specifics.
"for Example, if the authorities require social distancing or wearing masks, then the questions arise: will people follow these requirements voluntarily, as will effective enforcement measures? These items are in different regions may vary," he explained.
"the Number of deaths depends also on the readiness of health systems, so it’s important to share data about hospital beds. For more information can give tracking population movements using data from Apple and Google," said Partensky.
"Speaking of models, it is important to note that those who observe are simultaneously observers. And if the optimistic model allows people to understand that they should not worry too much, it will lead to worse results. The pessimistic model will make people exercise more caution, and this will lead to better results. But no model can determine what happens to us is determined by ourselves. And the best thing we can do in the fight against the global crisis affecting everyone to be transparent as regards our data, so we can add models to our own experience, and thereby improve them so that you can use more efficient models, including the experience of other people", – concluded the Agency interlocutor.
Relevant data on the situation of COVID-19 in Russia and the world presented on the portal stopmanager.of the Russian Federation.
