In the last days of April through the quarantine reports made it unordinary news: Moscow has suspended exports of grain on the world market for the first time since 2010. The quota by 7 million tons set by the Ministry of agriculture, a fully-used — ahead of schedule. And then emerged another: according to experts, the country is threatened by drought.Igor Abakumov, associate Professor at Moscow agricultural Academy im. K. A. Camerasavailable drought – 2020 to be announced. But it will be probably responsible for the food supply of the country. And their actions cause strong vibrations in the markets as a whole and from individual producers.Grain producers have reacted calmly to the introduction of export quotas (well, needs must!), but many were puzzled by the sudden shortening its duration. Had to finish the shipment in late may, as has been said, and in late April it was announced that all who did not, that was late: wait until June. The owners of the trucks, wagons, ships with grain are now forced to think how to unload loaded. Trucks to deploy simple, but it’s worth the money for the return flight. Send for unloading the cars a lot harder and also costs. The court is almost impossible: the port infrastructure is established to work in one direction. It means the penalties for easy to Jun. Most importantly — no response to the question: how did you manage for two days to declare the export of 3.2 million tonnes of grain, after which dropped the barrier? On the market all know each other, how many cars, how many vessels, the permeability of driveways. Two days is just not possible to do. It is physically impossible. And it turns out that someone has received the customs Declaration, not yet plunging grain, as is customary in the market.— The export of grain to foreign markets closed, except for the countries of the Eurasian economic Union,— said Vice-President of the Russian grain Union Alexander Korbut.— I hope that in the mass issuance of “preliminary” declarations lies someone’s mistake, not greed. However, an honest vendors suffer serious losses, which may result in the departure of some from the market. And no one will see, if you sell grain to traders from the countries of the EEU and, even at a discount, but send it to customers from foreign countries under existing contracts. In addition, the market already there are offers to sell grain to those who have hands Declaration— discounted, of course. That is, instead of the transparency of export has got murky water when you can to offer… on the purchase of the Declaration itself.The signs were there: in the subsoil was dry at depths of 30-50 cm. Then there was a snowless winter and dry spring. Known to those skilled in Dokuchaevsk well in Kamennaya steppe, Voronezh region, where since the nineteenth century are maintained groundwater level below 2010.Recall, that’s when Russia was struck by a severe drought and was in��Eden of the grain embargo — a total ban of grain exports. The embargo has crippled the Russian export and political position of the country in world markets as a serious and responsible partner. In addition, the non-delivery of Russian grain to North Africa was the spark in an empty fuel tank protest provocation, and flashed the revolution in Tunisia, then in Libya, Iraq, and now our guys extinguish these sparks in Syria. This version is still refuted, and between the two events — the embargo and the events in Tunisia — just three months. Food supplies do not tolerate sudden movements.So, in Dokuchaevsk well is monitoring water runoff from the Russian plain to the South seas: the Azov, Black and Caspian sea. It is possible to predict the situation in the South of Russia. This observation and our “regulators”, it seems that once again safely missed, despite all the warnings in the press. Instead of trying to inform the market, to gather experts to outline economic stimulus measures conservation technologies, possible means of crop insurance, the conversation was: exports, exports — everything. Then export restriction quota. And — gate, which, it turns out that there are loopholes for the elite. In fact — so.Don’t want to escalate the alarm, but the situation is difficult. It all depends on the rains and availability of irrigation facilities. In the Stavropol region, the agrarians offered to put the hat and call for rain from the planes never happened. On the separate fields of the Kuban wheat formed the ear. But this is not at all the squares, there is a minority. Modern technology, where they apply, give the effect. The question is rather different.And this, according to various estimates, 2-3 million tonnes. Specialized agricultural statistics service is in the US — has been operating for about 200 years. And its employees every day to collect data from the farmers: how planted, how many have been collected, milked and fattened. And in a day or three this information is already in a processed form is supplied to the computers of those same farmers to their orientation. I’ve been poring over this service from Washington to the Mexican border and can testify it really allows US to keep global leadership in food markets, in any weather. We have such a service there. And this level of transparency we have not yet reached.Although we must pay tribute: when the new Minister came agrobaltika Center, which provides open information for everyone. However, it is harvested by the same officials, who are dependent on local authorities, which means, give or embellished picture — for orders or Vice — versa, for squeezing money for emergencies. Is this not the reason for the sharp throwing at the slightest threats to food security?
